2024 Trade Deadline: Astros shopping list
With 4 days left until the deadline, stove is hot, teams are already dealing and, more than in any past season, it looks like a pricey market: expanded playoffs and close WC races are making for a lot of buyers and not that many sellers, spiking up returns and FV costs even in minor transactions.
Houston should have been one of the few sellers given a dire, historically awful 7–19 start, yet here they are, atop a mediocre, to be kind, AL West and buying, because there’s no denying it, this roster needs help, immediately.
Everyone knows what the Astros need just looking at on-paper performances and IL situations: starting pitching, and possibly a first baseman.
I’ll throw out some names who are feasible for Houston to add at reasonable prices, why they are useful and what they should cost in prospect terms.
Let’s get on with it.
First Baseman
Jon Singleton’s story is amazing and he’s actually been decent, league average and good against RHP, but a contender should do better at a purely offensive position such as 1B.
There are two ways to go about it: going for a platoon, acquiring a RHB with favorable splits, or go for a great all-around option and use Jon as a bench bat.
Let’s start by saying that there’s almost no chance the Astros can get a big name: the Mets ain’t selling, so Pete Alonso stays; same for Arizona and Christian Walker and it looks like Toronto wants to keep Vlad Guerrero Jr and only deal impending FA.
Which brings me to an interesting name: Justin Turner
Yeah, he’s as old as time and he’s not having a great season, but he has an OPS over .800 against lefties and shouldn’t cost much, maybe a lotter ticket 35+ FV prospect, if Houston takes on the remainder of his contract at around $6M.
He’s another Alex Bregman with even less pop, great swing decisions and plate discipline but a slow bat and no Barrels to be found. He wouldn’t be the best option, and he’s a former Dodger so clubhouse might have to say something, but as a platoon bat he’s up to par.
A similar profile, in terms of age and contract, is Mark Canha.
Another old man, Canha comes with an OPS close to .900 against lefties, plays a good 1B and can even moonlight in the OF if needed. He’s also a slow bat with a good eye and diminishing power, so he would fit the platoon role and also provide his renowned clubhouse presence, something the Astros seem to like recently.
If Dana Brown wants to up the ante and send some better prospects packing, Tampa Bay is the way to go: either one between Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes would be a great, welcomed addition.
Yandy is more of a contact specialist, a line drive machine with outstanding HardHit rate but a penchant for groundballs, he controls the zone well and doesn’t whiff, a trait Houston seems to love about their hitters.
At around $8M AAV with club options until 2026, he’s got years of control and a manageable contract, he’d be an everyday at first and an option at third when Bregman leaves come FA.
The blueprint for a Diaz trade follows the return Tampa commended from Seattle for Randy Arozarena: a 45/40+ FV prospect, a 40 FV and a PTBNL. That’s not cheap but that could also mean being able to keep prized prospects such as Melton, Diaz, Matthews and Bloss.
That wouldn’t be possible when targeting Paredes.
His profile fits Houston to bits: an extreme flyball pull hitter, he’s born to mash with the Crawford Boxes on his left, he can play a nice 3B after Bregman’s departure and he’s controllable through arbitration until 2027.
He’s also tough to strike out, walks a lot, doesn’t whiff and a plus defender at first, pretty much everything Houston wants. He’d also cost you a lot: two between the aforementioned prospects might have to go, plus a couple 35s too.
It’s a steep price, but one that makes sense given Houston’s needs and Paredes’ strange hitting nature.
Starting pitcher
With an entire rotation on the IL, young unripe hurlers like Arrighetti and Bloss being asked to doo too much and too early plus the savior Ronel Blanco getting close to his career high in IP, the Astros need innings in bunches more than in quality.
Forget about Garret Crochet and Tarik Skubal, they are just too expensive and not what Houston should want; forget about Zach Eflin, who just got fleeced by the Orioles for a good price; forget about Blake Snell for the love of God, please Jim Crane, don’t do it.
Houston’s need is a couple of #3–4, mid to back of the rotation starters giving you a fair chance at a QS.
Strangely enough, Colorado has two of them: Cal Quantrill comes from Cleveland’s lab, has leaned on a demonic splitter along with his firm sinker leading to a lot of groundballs and really few Barrels. He’s not a strikeout guy but he keeps walks in check and battles.
He’s got another year of arbitration left before becoming a free agent, Dana Brown mentioned club control as a priority, so he’d probably cost a couple of 45/40+ FV prospects, though a Pedro Leon might be enticing for Colorado as a superior defender and power hitter at Coors.
That’s around the cost of the other Rockies SP option in Ryan Feltner.
If you can look past his ERA and W-L record, and you should, he’s actually a solid starter, throws harder than Quantrill but equally good at avoiding Barrels via GB, he strikes out more hitters and walks less, although Chases are not an option.
He’s still a long way to FA so he might cost a bit more, but he should be on Brown’s radar.
Lastly, a rental option that might come as a surprise.
No, it’s not Jack Flaherty, who’s having a sub 1 WHIP and 10 K/9 season and as such should cost the whole farm even for a single run.
What about a slightly used Yusei Kikuchi?
A lefty with plus stuff, I’ve always had a soft spot for his dynamic windup and elite extension off the mound.
He’s the same guys as always: strikes out plenty, allows too much hard contact and Barrels, doesn’t always go deep into a start but upside is through the roof. With a small caveat: he stopped walking guys, finally coming right at hitters with his fastball/curveball combo and the occasional split.
Toronto is selling rentals, Yimi Garcia just got on a plane to Seattle, so they might be willing to part ways with Yusei for an Eflin sized package, a 40+ FV, a 40 FV and another lottery ticket, a lot for a rental but a sacrifice worth making for his services.
There’s not much time left to go before rosters are set in stone, Seattle has already started to improve its ranks and the Rangers might be buyers too.
Brown and co must make some tough decisions come Tuesday, find the perfect balance between giving the team a good chance this season and protect its future.
Staying put is not an option, selling the farm again isn’t one either.
Good luck Dana, bring us something!
