When life gives you lemons

Alessandro Zilio
6 min readJul 4, 2024

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A month or so ago I proclaimed the 2024 Astros as dead in the water.

In the meantime they managed to get even more injured than before, losing almost all of their rotation to the IL and having to deal with the most gruesome shin injury ever in a foul ball Kyle Tucker missiled on his leg, to that he’s yet to come back.

Jose Abreu is a thing of the past, released after a pitiful tenure that makes him arguably the worst contract Houston has given so far, and lo and behold, offense is back bashing, led by All Stars in Tuve and Yordan, while Yainer Diaz figured out how to hit with RISP and Bregman figured out how to hit.

Also, Hunter Brown added a sinker and became peak Astro Nolan Ryan, that’s baseball folks. On the other hand Mom’s spaghetti, Spencer Arrighetti, can’t throw a fastball where the catcher wants it and yes, Framber Valdez imploded again.

All that said, the Astros are two games back in the AL West.

They were 10 behind Seattle and now they are over .500 and oh so close to what looked like an unreachable summit four weeks ago.

Simply put, the AL West is the worst Division in baseball by a wide margin: not blaming both A’s and Angels, they are supposed to be bad and Oakland isn’t even that horrible to be fair.

Texas is plummeting due to inconsistent pitching and an offense that is Seager, Smith and seven corpses on the daily, but Scherzer is on his way back.

The culprit to this mediocrity are the Mariners though: rotation is as good as advertised yet showing some cracks, Woo can’t stay healthy and Bryce Miller had a couple of clunkers, bullpen is scarce in middle innings and decent on the back, but boy oh boy, they do not have an offense at all.

This is an historically abhorrent lineup: Julio Rodriguez is a shade of himself, everyone else is striking out like they are Joey Gallo carbon copies, they live and die by the bombs, which are usually solo shots given the fact they can’t buy hits nor walks.

All those close games they were managing to win are now becoming losses on losses, piling up on miserable showings by their bats, making their SP’s efforts moot.

So, Houston is back in business, but they do need help in key areas, and that’s where I come in.

Trade season is in, Tampa has already started to wheel and deal, so let’s have some fun and plug those holes the Astros have, both in their pitching staff and lineup.

With Abreu out of the way and Joey Loperfido still only an outfielder, first base has become a Jon Singleton/Mauricio Dubon platoon, which is not the way a contender should live.

Everybody and his mother want Vladimir Guerrero Jr in Houston and I don’t doubt the player, he’s a hard contact machine with good K/BB rate and a FA in 2025, but the cost won’t be worth the return: would you trade your only top 100 prospect in Jacob Melton, plus future top 100s such as Jake Bloss and Bryce Matthews, plus another decent flyer a la Miguel Ullola, for a year and a half of a great first baseman? That’s a no for me.

There are plenty of other options if the coast becomes clearer in terms of PO standings: if Arizona goes on a skid Christian Walker would be cheaper and an amazing addition, power and elite defense; if the Mets decide to sell anyway Pete Alonso might be available for a reasonable price, adding much needed pop to a contact-heavy lineup.

I’m out on Cody Bellinger, his peripherals are bad and his $26M AAV contract is worse, and as much as I’d like to bet on a Jake Burger resurgence, elite bat speed and he can run too, Houston needs more immediate impact.

Which brings me to my favorite name for the Astros first basemen to trade for: Yandy Diaz.

Tampa is still in the mix for a WC but they are always looking to manage their payroll and Diaz is on a nice, $8M contract with team option that would be affordable for Houston.

Yandy seems already an Astro looking at his production: he makes a ton of hard contact, like 50% HardHit, no cheap singles, but he’s back on a heavy GB diet with liners and only occasional homers after a promising 22 HR display last season.

He’s walking a bit less and making much more contact out of the zone, still he doesn’t whiff, chases sparingly, plays average defense at 1B, a lot better than Big Jon, and has years of control on a reasonable contract.

He’d fit in as the 5/6th hitter in a lineup that would give him plenty of runners to move around and maybe a bit more patience whereas he’s got to carry a faulty TB offense that lacks discipline and firepower.

Tampa likes to trade and they love tools heavy prospects, which the Astros have plenty: Zach Cole is back mashing in AA, plus power, elite runner and great in center, he’s a less manic Jose Siri; Colin Barber has been bit by the injury bug but when healthy he’s at least a 40+ FV; Kenedy Corona is not hitting at all but his defense is plus.

I wouldn’t give away a Melton, Baez or Matthews but everyone else would be on the table, even high stuff pitchers such as Bloss and Ullola, though he might be more of a late inning RP.

Dream trade scenario: Astros get Yandy Diaz from TB for Zach Cole, Kenedy Corona and Misael Tamarez

With 7 starters in the IL and both Blanco and Spencer close to their career IP thresholds, Houston needs help in their rotation, not as much in quality, rather a steady, proven innings eater, a #3–4 with a rubber arm and a smidge of upside.

Forget about the likes of Garrett Crochet, who should be an Oriole yesterday, and don’t get fooled by Tyler Anderson’s results, he’s on borrowed time once hitters figure out they can sit changeup.

Toronto’s skyfall could be interesting: Kikuchi is a rental but he’s got stuff for days, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios earn too much for too long but are proven commodities, Chris Bassitt is the most interesting option but a pricy one.

Back to Tampa, they have a hidden gem in Zach Eflin, who walks literally nobody, less than 2% BB rate, and gets a ton of chases through a smoke and mirrors, kitchen sink approach where he throws nothing straight and induces poor contact.

He’s also under team control for 2 years at a sustainable $13M AAV, right on GM Dana Brown’s alley, and sweetening the Yandy Diaz deal to fit him in might be a nice way to solve two issues in a single trade. Heck, you could even get back baby faced assassin Phil Maton if you ask nicely!

My favorite SP option for the Astros resides in Chicago, with the derelict White Sox: bring me an Erick Fedde.

After a stint in KBO, Fedde is back and dealing for a miserable team, so he should have earned his way out: his secondary stuff is amazing, he’s suppressing the HR ball, doesn’t walk too many, decent K numbers and gaudy contact periperals, no red flags to show for.

He’s also quite cheap, with another year after this one at a cool $7.5M AAV. Houston and Chicago have a good trade partnership, the entire White Sox catching corps are former Stros in Maldy, Korey Lee and Stassi, also Corey Julks is there somewhere, so both organization know each other well.

Chicago likes players close to the Majors or developmental projects: someone like Pedro Leon might be perfect for them, blocked here but a starter there, and young performers such as Nehomar Ochoa jr and Chase Jaworsky would fit the White Sox rebuild to come.

Dream trade scenario: Astros get Erick Fedde from CWS for Pedro Leon and Nehomar Ochoa jr

There are many other names, possibilites and such I’d explore, and I’ll probably come back with more as the Deadline approaches.

Houston is somehow back into the fray, but they need to fix an issue or two to be back contending for real.

A starter or two is a must, someone who takes the ball every five days and has a chance at a QS; a first baseman would be great though fair play to Big Jon; bullpen help is always appreciated.

They might not deserve such a chance after a horrible start, but Seattle has given the Astros a shot with their poor performance as of late.

When life gives you lemons, ain’t nothing you can do but lemonade.

Houston needs to squeeze every drop they can manage, and to do that, they need to get healthier and better.

Looking outside the organization will be a given.

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Alessandro Zilio

Italian baseball stathead. I’ll write about MLB, NPB and Korean dramas. A lot of Astros related content and obscure references.